Daily

Column

Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day

  • (blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

### Dane

Wisconsin

Active

Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group:

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

Column

Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 08 2020 1000 19162 41 6 210 263
September 09 2020 1037 19168 41 6 236 289
September 10 2020 1060 19290 42 6 259 292
September 11 2020 1098 19468 42 6 273 318
September 12 2020 1171 19766 42 6 333 381
September 13 2020 1232 20082 43 6 372 431
September 14 2020 1259 20176 43 6 377 458
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 2 0.4 1.3% 5 0.04% 5 0.04%
10-19 5 8.0 22.8% 86 0.63% 104 0.76%
20-29 14 26.0 62.1% 234 1.12% 280 1.34%
30-39 0 1.6 3.7% 14 0.1% 17 0.12%
40-49 3 1.0 2.9% 11 0.11% 17 0.16%
50-59 1 1.6 3.2% 12 0.1% 15 0.12%
60-69 2 1.4 3.2% 12 0.1% 14 0.12%
70+ 0 0.3 0.8% 3 0.03% 6 0.06%
All ages 27 40.3 100% 377 0.36% 458 0.44%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 08 2020 385 12648 16 0 43 81
September 09 2020 389 12673 17 0 44 77
September 10 2020 395 12747 17 0 48 72
September 11 2020 403 12847 17 0 53 72
September 12 2020 409 12908 17 0 55 67
September 13 2020 418 12993 17 0 54 73
September 14 2020 420 13036 17 0 49 73

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 08 2020 393 7701 18 3 23 32
September 09 2020 393 7787 18 3 23 29
September 10 2020 394 7850 18 4 24 29
September 11 2020 394 7922 18 4 22 25
September 12 2020 395 7929 18 4 20 25
September 13 2020 396 7931 18 4 15 26
September 14 2020 398 8017 18 4 16 28

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 08 2020 1351 21821 38 2 195 291
September 09 2020 1370 22056 39 2 193 293
September 10 2020 1445 22189 39 2 263 336
September 11 2020 1523 22407 39 2 321 390
September 12 2020 1625 22558 39 2 417 469
September 13 2020 1754 22560 39 2 515 577
September 14 2020 1799 22561 40 2 513 617
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.3 0.4% 2 0.02% 2 0.02%
10-19 21 23.3 33.9% 174 1.05% 191 1.15%
20-29 21 33.1 50.7% 260 1.22% 312 1.47%
30-39 2 1.9 3.3% 17 0.13% 24 0.18%
40-49 1 2.6 4.3% 22 0.16% 28 0.21%
50-59 0 2.0 3.1% 16 0.11% 27 0.19%
60-69 0 1.7 2.3% 12 0.08% 17 0.12%
70+ 0 1.1 1.9% 10 0.08% 16 0.12%
All ages 45 66.0 100% 513 0.43% 617 0.52%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 08 2020 6427 170482 335 40 1040 1266
September 09 2020 6489 171531 338 41 1063 1280
September 10 2020 6971 172451 340 41 1542 1677
September 11 2020 7254 172750 343 41 1734 1924
September 12 2020 7389 173348 343 41 1825 2002
September 13 2020 7622 174239 344 41 1983 2196
September 14 2020 7846 174544 345 41 2047 2417
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 3 1.9 0.9% 18 0.03% 25 0.04%
10-19 128 140.0 59.5% 1217 1.71% 1388 1.95%
20-29 67 69.3 29.5% 604 0.58% 713 0.69%
30-39 10 8.7 3.9% 80 0.1% 109 0.14%
40-49 7 5.4 2.1% 44 0.07% 68 0.1%
50-59 6 4.1 2% 40 0.06% 53 0.08%
60-69 1 2.6 1.3% 27 0.05% 35 0.06%
70+ 2 2.0 0.8% 17 0.03% 26 0.05%
All ages 224 234.0 100% 2047 0.37% 2417 0.44%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 08 2020 82477 1230159 6118 1168 7677 10985
September 09 2020 83334 1238173 6173 1183 7997 11074
September 10 2020 84881 1245448 6222 1193 9278 11743
September 11 2020 86250 1254034 6263 1197 9666 12269
September 12 2020 87603 1264305 6309 1209 10474 12803
September 13 2020 89185 1270458 6332 1210 11329 13848
September 14 2020 89956 1273607 6350 1210 10602 14353
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 17 26.6 2.3% 244 0.04% 353 0.06%
10-19 235 293.6 24.2% 2570 0.34% 3100 0.41%
20-29 247 359.6 30.1% 3195 0.42% 4119 0.54%
30-39 73 116.7 10% 1062 0.14% 1609 0.21%
40-49 57 101.6 9.1% 962 0.14% 1455 0.21%
50-59 58 126.7 11.4% 1211 0.15% 1731 0.21%
60-69 42 79.6 7% 746 0.1% 1087 0.14%
70+ 42 66.6 5.8% 612 0.1% 899 0.14%
All ages 771 1170.9 100% 10602 0.18% 14353 0.25%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
43.8 76.4 133.8 40.3 13.1 20.8%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
11.3 5.4 5.9 7.8%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
6.2 0.9 2.3 1.8%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
52.2 115.4 146.6 66 18.6 37.4%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
44.2 195.3 68.6 234 49.3 27.9%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
24.7 41 54.4 1170.9 674 14.9%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

Column {data-width=600}

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column {data-width=200}

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

Column

Reliable Updated Visuals

Column

Modeling

Column {data-width=600}

Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 23.2 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.35 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-10-05 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1297"

Column {data-width=600}